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But more importantly what we'll see is poor architecture/engineering/serious lack of change control at the provider level and have extended outages as a result.
Another concern is that VOIP providers don't have the same disaster recovery requirements that the PSTN providers have. As VOIP becomes more prevalent in the househld, this could lead to interesting physical issues during major disasters.
-Daniel
"While some early press accounts have focused on the potential for VoIP spam and VoIP call hijacking, the consensus of learning from this project is that there are many other threats inherited from traditional data networks (worms, DDoS, etc.) that are more likely to occur today."
There's good discussion regarding many of these threats on the VOIPSEC mailing list.
Wifi was fixed in the enterprise way before it was fixed in the consumer realm--oh wait, I can still hack all my neighbors. Same thing here. Enterprise VoIP can be done correctly, but just like in 2000-2001, enteprises can get crushed by the consumer leper colony.
Great point about Vonage. What chance do they have we go from maybe a hundred million global VoIP users to hundreds of millions in a couple years all engaging in seamless PSTN to IP or IP to IP calls from all corners of the earth? I hope they are gearing up.
When you combine in-band signalling as noted in Ivan's comment with an "open-source" phone system when pretty much anyone, or anything can just plug and play, you end up with an target that is just too juicy to pass up. FUD? The cool thing about technology predictions is that they don't take very long to be tested.
The classic example of this is the ease with which VoIP can be used to produce false CallerID information (yes, I know you can do this in the "traditional" telecom world, too, but VoIP makes it easier). This has been leveraged to bypass the "call from your home phone to authorize" security mechanism to authenticate that a mailed credit card has made it to the intended recipient.
Another example is the ability to bypass user authentication of voicemail boxes when calling from the box's phone number.
Or, consider how VoIP makes area code irrelevant--traditionally, an area code allowed someone to assume where a caller was geographically located, and some systems, such as CRM-driven call centers, may make bad decisions as a result.
The friction between VoIP and the bad security assumptions of the PSTN (as Ivan points out above) will be interesting to see play out. Unfortunately, I think that carriers are mostly trying to fight the battle by lobbying against VoIP, as if that will make the problem go away.